Springfield Properties plc
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Description
Springfield Properties is Scotland’s only quoted housebuilder. It was admitted to AIM in October 2017. We estimate it will sell almost 1,000 homes in FY 2019E (YE May), all north of the border, with further growth in FY 2020E and beyond driven by underlying market strength, the Walker Group acquisition and overall strategy.
Our view
Springfield is targeting more rapid volume growth than a number of the UK-wide volume housebuilders, helped by the relative strength of the Scottish market and its distinctive model for delivering private and affordable housing. We additionally note that there may be further upside to our estimates of profitability if house price growth exceeds what we believe are conservative expectations.
Recent Research
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Financial Summary
Year end: May (£m unless shown)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 84.3 | 90.8 | 110.6 | 140.7 | 190.8 |
| Adj EBITDA | 4.3 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 18.6 |
| Fully Adj PBT | 3.1 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 16.5 |
| Fully Adj EPS (p) | 0.0 | 57.1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 13.9 |
Profit & Loss
Year end: May (£m unless shown)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 84.3 | 90.8 | 110.6 | 140.7 | 190.8 |
| Adj EBITDA | 4.3 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 18.6 |
| Adj EBIT | 3.8 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 17.0 |
| Reported PBT | (0.5) | 5.1 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 16.0 |
| Fully Adj PBT | 3.1 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 16.5 |
| NOPAT | 3.1 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 13.8 |
| Reported EPS (p) | 0.0 | 57.1 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 13.3 |
| Fully Adj EPS (p) | 0.0 | 57.1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 13.9 |
| Dividend per share (p) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
Year end: May (£m unless shown)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | (2.4) | (5.9) | 3.2 | 14.4 | 16.0 |
| Free Cash flow | (4.1) | (7.7) | 0.6 | 10.9 | 10.7 |
| FCF per share (p) | (107.9) | 1.0 | 14.8 | 11.2 | |
| Acquisitions | 0.0 | 0.0 | (0.0) | (15.3) | (20.9) |
| Disposals | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Shares issued | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 42.2 | 0.0 |
| Net cash flow | 0.5 | (0.2) | 8.8 | 3.7 | (9.0) |
| Overdrafts / borrowings | 21.4 | 30.6 | 41.5 | 27.3 | 32.6 |
| Cash & equivalents | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 3.1 |
| Net (Debt)/Cash | (21.4) | (30.6) | (33.2) | (15.3) | (29.6) |
Nav & Returns
Year end: May (£m unless shown)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net asset value | 26.2 | 29.2 | 32.4 | 79.0 | 88.5 |
| NAV/share (p) | 443.3 | 82.0 | 91.9 | ||
| Net Tangible Asset Value | 26.2 | 29.2 | 32.4 | 78.4 | 86.9 |
| NTAV/share (p) | 443.3 | 81.4 | 90.2 | ||
| Average equity | 26.2 | 27.7 | 30.8 | 55.7 | 83.8 |
| Post-tax ROE (%) | (3.9%) | 14.7% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 15.4% |
Metrics
Year end: May (£m unless shown)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.7% | 21.8% | 27.2% | 35.6% | |
| Adj EBITDA growth | 57.4% | 26.8% | 36.4% | 58.8% | |
| Adj EBIT growth | 61.6% | 28.2% | 35.9% | 60.1% | |
| Adj PBT growth | 65.0% | 31.2% | 46.1% | 69.2% | |
| Adj EPS growth | (83.9%) | 17.1% | 29.1% | ||
| Dividend growth | N/A | N/A | 32.1% | 18.9% | |
| Adj EBIT margins | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% |